Exploring the LCC Hypothesis in the Nordic Region: The Role of AI Innovation, Environmental Taxes, and Financial Accessibility via Panel ARDL

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) innovation on environmental sustainability in the Nordic region. Additionally, it tests the Load Capacity Curve (LCC) hypothesis by incorporating factors such as financial accessibility, environmental tax, and urbanization, using data spanning from 1990 to 2020. The methodology includes the Cross-Sectional Dependence test and the slope homogeneity test, revealing issues of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. Furthermore, first and second-generation panel unit root assessments indicate that the variables are free from unit root problems. Panel Cointegration tests confirm that the variables are cointegrated in the long run. To analyze both short-run and long-run relationships, the study employs the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results from the Panel ARDL model support the LCC hypothesis in the Nordic region, showing a U-shaped relationship between income and load capacity factor. Moreover, AI innovation and environmental tax significantly and positively contribute to environmental sustainability in both the short and long run. In contrast, higher financial accessibility and urbanization degrade environmental sustainability over these timeframes. To validate the robustness of the Panel ARDL estimations, the study also uses Fully Modified OLS, Dynamic OLS, and Fixed Effects OLS approaches, all of which corroborate the ARDL findings. The study employs the D-H causality test to explore causal relationships among the variables. The test results reveal a unidirectional causal relationship between income and AI innovation to the load capacity factor and a bidirectional causal relationship between financial accessibility and the load capacity factor, as well as between urbanization and the load capacity factor. However, no causal relationship is found between environmental tax and the load capacity factor.