Analysis of the volatility of the price of cassava in Cameroon: implications for food security

Abstract

With a contribution of up to 71% to CEMAC production, Cameroon is one of the major producers of cassava and taro, accounting for more than 83% of root and tuber production. It is the 11th largest producer in the world and the 4th in Africa. Cassava is a vital food source for over 500 million people, ranking as the third-largest source of calories in the tropics after rice and maize. Its importance as a source of income for the majority of poor rural farmers in Cameroon cannot be overstated. However, there has been a persistent increase in the prices of cassava and other food commodities in Cameroon. This study was designed to investigate the determinants of cassava price volatility in Cameroon over the period 1994-2022. The TAR-MTAR method was employed in this study. Our results showed that cassava prices increased significantly by an average of 46% annually, with a volatility level of 30.8% annually and 177.8% over the entire period (1994-2022). This indicates that cassava prices have been rising rapidly and unpredictably, which can have various implications for consumers, farmers, and the economy as a whole. The research demonstrated that cassava price volatility occurred at the beginning, middle, and end of the year due to factors such as climate change, cassava yield, and interest rates. It has been suggested that the government should implement a mapping policy and selling models to ensure a stable supply of cassava.